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billwade's picture
The Bears will pursue the wrong offseason strategy again

I have watched the 22s for several games extensively. The evidence is very plain, but mark my words, the Bears won't see it. I'm not particularly interested in Trubisky's games, but I am invested in Foles, so I wanted to see exactly what was going on. How does a guy who takes a Philly team to the playoffs twice and wins a SB MVP one year and makes it to the NFC championship game the next look so awful in this offense?

The simple answer is that the o-line has turned him into a one-read QB. Consistently, over and over again, there is only time to make one read and the ball must be gone because he's crushed if he holds it. That one read is usually Robinson, but defenses are smart enough to take that away. Compounding the problem is that no defense is afraid of the Bears running game, so you never see a safety in the box unless it's an all out blitz, which the Bears never pick up. You usually see five in coverage minimum, and often a LB too. The Bears running game is so bad it's often defended with just six. To make matters even worse, the safeties don't fear the deep ball because there usually isn't enough time for those routes to develop, so they are playing about five yards shallower than they normally would. The end net result is traffic is so thick in the area of the field where passes need to be thrown before a sack happens that it's very hard to see anything open in such a small window.

Finally, I'm not sold on any of the Bears receivers besides Robinson, who frankly, is playing at an incredibly high level under the circumstances. I suspect Miller runs the wrong route or makes the wrong decision on the route tree about 20% of the time. Mooney is clearly better, but he often runs lazy routes when he's not the primary target, rounding them off or stopping altogether. 

Foles isn't absolved of all blame in this. His accuracy is the worst this year I have ever seen it. Since the fractured collarbone injury last year that required screws and plates, his accuracy hasn't been the same. That was always the strong point of his game, and now it's not. That said, he's launching the ball way before he wants to. FOles has a live arm, and most of his medium/deep passes have a ton of air under them because the launch point is too early because of the pressure.

My point though, is that this entire mess on offense is 80-90% o-line related, and I know I'm not telling anyone anything they don't know. I'm just trying to emphasize that it's actually much worse than I though it was before watching the 22s. That group needs to be rebuilt from the ground up, and no resources should be spared in the effort. They are collectively that bad. Instead, the Bears will likely draft another QB in the first round who will probably be doomed to the same fate as all the others. If they do draft one, he better be as mobile as Llamar Jackson as as accurate as Mahomes if nothing changes with the line. 

The right path, but one that will be unpopular so they won't do it, would be to keep Foles (they owe him 10 mil next year either way) work on the o-line and THEN draft the QB of the future in 2022. But they won't do it, and the dumpster fire will continue. 

Finally, I am now of the mindset that they indeed ruined Trubisky. He doesn't have great field vision to begin with, but a solid o-line would have given him more time and perhaps slowed the game down enough where he might have begun to feel comfortable to look at his secondary options. With this shit show, there was never a chance he would develop those skills. 

If they aren't 100% in on fixing the o-line this offseason, it won't matter if they draft Joe Montana 2. He'll fail too. 

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